TPM Track Composite: Obama’s Lead Edges Up

Here’s our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. The recent tightening in the race appears to have stopped for today, with Obama’s lead expanding slightly:

• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-47% Obama lead from yesterday.

• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.5%-44.2%, a lead of 6.3 points, compared to the 50.2%-44.4% Obama lead from yesterday.

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Stephanopoulos On McCain Comeback? ABC (Video)

Although McCain says ‘I’m a Fighter’ no one history has made a comeback – from being 10 points down in the polls 3 weeks before the election – to win. Everyone is wondering – what’s McCain’s message – and maybe he should make that clearer – but I think what has happened is that people have heard his message and haven’t bought it. Tax cut proposals for multi-millionaires and billionaires – while the average person is losing their jobs or seen money tighten through higher prices. And because of the US administration of which John McCain belonged – not only the US economy, but economies around the world have been rocked by decisions John McCain and his trusted economic adviser made – the economic adviser one who was saying America has become a nation of whiners – and the recession was in people minds.

Polls: Obama Holds 5-Point Lead – Gallup Daily

PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama leads John McCain, 49% to 44%, when registered voters are asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update.

These results, from Sept. 24-26, are almost entirely based on interviewing conducted before Friday night’s first presidential debate. This suggests Obama was moving into a slightly better positioning as the two met in Mississippi to debate foreign policy matters and the economic crisis. The five percentage point lead for Obama in today’s update is one of his best in recent weeks, just short of the six-point advantage he had in Sept. 17-19 polling. McCain had been running ahead of Obama since the Republican National Convention earlier this month, but as the financial crisis deepened Obama regained the lead positioning he had enjoyed through much of the summer. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

The initial impact of the debate — and perhaps more importantly, the political spin in the days after — on voter preferences will be apparent in the next few days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, with Tuesday’s report the first for which all interviews will be conducted after the debate. — Jeff Jones

Source: Gallup Daily